Saturday, September 25, 2004

Recipe for Disaster

The mullahs in Tehran have just test fired a missile whose range is probably at least 1,200 miles. It was described by the Iranians as being capable of dealing with "extra-regional" threats. I doubt that means it could reach the US, but the Europeans must certainly be feeling the pay-off for their conciliatory attitudes towards the latest batch of turban-clad tinhorns.

Of course if they really wanted to create chaos in the western world they don't need to nuke Tel Aviv or Brussels they could simply hit a Saudi oil refinery or two since
OPEC has lost its ability to control production with any reliability.

Don't think they won't. Back in June, eight British sailors were laying sensors out in the international waters to guard Iraqi oil terminals from being subject to saboutage from somelike like, say, Iran. The Iranians thought so much of this exercise they decided to essentially
kidnap the sailors to prove the point that they would not be deterred by such piffle. Heck, the Iranians even consider US forces in Iraq as hostages of sorts and may strike pre-emptively if they feel their nuclear ambitions--which they refuse to curtail--are threatened.

These seeming disparate factors coupled with Irans flagrant support for the anti-Iraqi terrorists have the potential for some real interesting months ahead. I'm laying odds that if Kerry gets elected, or appears to be getting elected the mullahs will quiet down because they know they can run diplomatic roughshod over him just like the North Koreans did to Clinton and Carter. Kerry would assume the lack of bellicose dialogue would be testament to
his diplomatic prowess, all the while he would be oblivious to the snickering going on behind his back. If Bush looks likely for re-election expect lots harsh language, threats and maybe even a persistent chemical attack on OPEC refineries and/or an extensive bombing campaign within the US to create a little economic havoc.


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